Aluminum Prices Halt Decline, ADC12 Holds Steady at 21,450 Yuan [SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment]

SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment on Nov. 20

Futures: The most-traded cast aluminum alloy futures contract AD2601 opened at 20,870 yuan/mt overnight, hit a low of 20,765 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 20,815 yuan/mt, flat from the previous close. Trading volume was 1,851 lots, and open interest was 12,677 lots. The K-value was 28.29, the D-value was 45.83, and the J-value was -6.78. The J-line entered negative territory, and the KDJ lines showed a downward divergence pattern, indicating clear short-term bearish technical signals. Technical indicators suggest that short-term rebound momentum may be insufficient. Subsequent attention should be paid to whether the price can effectively break through the upper resistance level or hold the lower support level at 20,710.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on November 19, the SMM ADC12 spot price showed a theoretical premium of 610 yuan/mt over the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminum alloy futures contract (AD2601) at 10:15.

Industry Dynamics: On November 19, 2025, the first contract of the SHFE cast aluminum alloy futures, AD2511, completed its delivery, with a delivery volume of approximately 22,900 mt and a value of about 476 million yuan. Since its listing, the futures have operated smoothly with active participation from enterprises. As of November 17, the cumulative trading volume reached 596,400 lots, with a value of 120.282 billion yuan, providing a risk management tool for the secondary aluminum industry chain. Multiple enterprises in the industry chain participated in the first delivery. The SHFE previously conducted delivery business training and will continue to improve service quality and efficiency. Market participants believe it is conducive to the stable operation of enterprises. The SHFE will continue to serve the real economy and leverage the functions of the futures market to support the "dual carbon" goals.

Warrant Daily Report: SHFE data showed that on November 19, the total registered volume of cast aluminum alloy warrants was 10,847 mt, an increase of 1,025 mt from the previous trading day. The breakdown by region was as follows: Shanghai's total registered volume was 4,757 mt, unchanged from the previous day; Guangdong's total registered volume was 18,851 mt, a decrease of 30 mt; Jiangsu's total registered volume was 11,000 mt, unchanged; Zhejiang's total registered volume was 19,811 mt, unchanged; Chongqing's total registered volume was 6,308 mt, an increase of 1,055 mt; Sichuan's total registered volume was 120 mt, unchanged.

Aluminum Scrap: On Wednesday, the spot price of primary aluminum rebounded slightly compared to the previous trading day, with the SMM A00 spot price closing at 21,550 yuan/mt. Quotations in the aluminum scrap market showed significant regional divergence. Baled UBC was mainly quoted in the range of 16,300-16,800 yuan/mt (tax excluded), while shredded aluminum tense scrap, priced based on aluminum content, was mainly quoted at 18,000-18,500 yuan/mt (tax excluded). Wait-and-see sentiment was strong in Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, and Guizhou, where participants adopted a hold-the-line strategy in quotations. In east China and central China, prices followed the aluminum trend, choosing to increase by 50-100 yuan/mt on the day. Overall, the market is expected to continue the high-level tug-of-war between sellers and buyers. It is recommended to closely track the price trend of primary aluminum, changes in environmental protection policies, and adjustments in procurement strategies of downstream enterprises, while remaining vigilant about the risk of a high-level correction.

Silicon metal: On November 19, SMM non-oxygen blown #553 in east China was at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt; oxygen-blown #553 at 9,400-9,500 yuan/mt; #521 at 9,600-9,700 yuan/mt; #441 at 9,600-9,800 yuan/mt; #421 at 9,700-9,800 yuan/mt; #421 for silicone use at 9,800-10,200 yuan/mt; #3303 at 10,400-10,600 yuan/mt. Individual silicon prices in Tianjin edged up. Prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Sichuan, Shanghai, northwest China, and Xinjiang held steady.

Overseas market: Current overseas ADC12 quotation range stood at $2,600-2,640/mt, with import losses at about 400 yuan/mt, and the import window remained closed. Local ADC12 ex-tax quotations in Thailand were at 84-85 baht/kg.

Inventory: According to SMM statistics, on November 19, the daily social inventory of secondary aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totaled 51,497 mt, down 223 mt from the previous trading day.

Summary: Aluminum prices edged up yesterday, with SMM A00 aluminum spot prices rising 90 yuan/mt to 21,550 yuan/mt. For secondary aluminum, ADC12 prices held steady at 21,450 yuan/mt, overall trading sentiment was weak, and market willingness to follow the rise was insufficient. However, due to tight aluminum scrap supply, prices in some regions or varieties actively followed the increase, cost-side pressure persisted, and enterprises' raw material inventory remained low. In the short term, ADC12 prices may fluctuate rangebound, the tight aluminum scrap supply situation is hard to alleviate, and cost support remains solid. Demand-side resilience persists, and just-in-time procurement will provide bottom support for prices.

[Data source statement: Except for public information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.]